{
  "reviewed": "2026-10-25",
  "scope": "Operation-level physical output, distinct from state production, mineral reserves, exports and cash flows.",
  "segilola": {
    "operator": "Thor Explorations",
    "state": "Osun",
    "metric": "Gold poured",
    "unit": "troy ounces of gold (oz)",
    "scope": "Segilola operating mine only; not all Osun gold or Yoruba-owned production.",
    "annual": [
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "value": 98006,
        "status": "reported actual full year"
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "value": 84609,
        "status": "reported actual full year"
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "value": 85057,
        "status": "reported actual full year"
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "value": 91910,
        "status": "reported actual full year"
      }
    ],
    "annual_source": "https://thorexpl.com/projects-operations/segilola-gold-project/",
    "quarterly": [
      {
        "period": "2024-Q1",
        "value": 18543,
        "status": "reported actual"
      },
      {
        "period": "2024-Q2",
        "value": 21742,
        "status": "reported actual"
      },
      {
        "period": "2024-Q3",
        "value": 20110,
        "status": "reported actual"
      },
      {
        "period": "2024-Q4",
        "value": 24662,
        "status": "reported actual"
      },
      {
        "period": "2025-Q1",
        "value": 22790,
        "status": "reported actual"
      },
      {
        "period": "2025-Q2",
        "value": 22784,
        "status": "reported actual"
      },
      {
        "period": "2025-Q3",
        "value": 22617,
        "status": "reported actual"
      },
      {
        "period": "2025-Q4",
        "value": 23719,
        "status": "reported actual"
      },
      {
        "period": "2026-Q1",
        "value": 20256,
        "status": "reported actual"
      },
      {
        "period": "2026-Q2",
        "value": 19153,
        "status": "reported actual"
      },
      {
        "period": "2026-Q3",
        "value": 15515,
        "status": "reported actual"
      }
    ],
    "quarterly_sources": [
      {
        "periods": "2024-Q1 through 2025-Q4",
        "url": "https://thorexpl.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Q1-2026-Full-Corporate-Presentation-Final-YJ-Formatted-Template-to-use.pdf",
        "table": "page6 operational summary"
      },
      {
        "periods": "2026-Q1 and Q2",
        "url": "https://thorexpl.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Thor-Explorations-2026-Q2-MDA.pdf",
        "table": "production metrics"
      },
      {
        "periods": "2026-Q1 through Q3",
        "url": "https://investingnews.com/thor-explorations-announces-q3-2026-operating-update/",
        "original_url": "https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/318859/Thor-Explorations-Announces-Q3-2026-Operating-Update",
        "source_type": "Issuer press release syndicated by Newsfile; original Newsfile page bot challenge, complete release read on INN",
        "table": "Table1 Production Summary"
      }
    ],
    "operator_guidance": {
      "year": 2026,
      "low": 70000,
      "high": 72000,
      "unit": "oz",
      "status": "company guidance, not actual or model estimate",
      "release_period": "October2026 Q3 operating update",
      "previous_low": 75000,
      "previous_high": 85000,
      "reason": "Severe rainfall in late August affected mining operations."
    },
    "year_to_date_2026": {
      "through": "Q3",
      "value": 54924,
      "status": "sum of actual quarters, not full-year actual"
    },
    "model_recommendation": "11 quarterly observations permit only transparent small-sample demonstrations. Compare last-value, trailing mean and strongly regularised trend models with rolling chronological holdouts; show errors and sample count. Do not claim robust ML validation. Include latest guidance separately; structural mine-life and weather effects make blind trend extrapolation hazardous.",
    "exclude_2021_reason": "Commissioning/ramp-up partial year; 2021 release reports9921oz, later2022 comparative9888oz. Exclude from full-year model and disclose discrepancy if displayed.",
    "limitations": [
      "Gold poured differs from gold recovered and gold sold.",
      "Sales multiplied by price is not state GDP or public revenue.",
      "2026 guidance is a forecast and can change.",
      "Reserve statements are dated geological/economic estimates; cannot treat contained metal as future cash.",
      "Underground extensions require reserve definition, feasibility and development decisions."
    ]
  },
  "cement": {
    "metric": "Dangote Nigeria cement and clinker sales volumes",
    "scope": "All Nigerian operations, not site/state output",
    "unit": "thousand tonnes",
    "annual": [
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "value": 16392
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "value": 17683
      }
    ],
    "source": "https://dangotecement.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Dangote-Cement-FY-2024-Annual-Report.pdf",
    "page": 38,
    "site_output_verified": false,
    "capacity_only": [
      {
        "plant": "Obajana",
        "state": "Kogi",
        "capacity_million_tonnes_per_year": 16.25
      },
      {
        "plant": "Ibese",
        "state": "Ogun",
        "capacity_million_tonnes_per_year": 12
      }
    ],
    "capacity_source": "https://dangotecement.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Dangote-Cement-Plc-H1-2024-Results-Statement.pdf",
    "constraint": "Do not allocate national company sales to plants by installed capacity or relabel sales as quarry output. No actual per-plant annual time series verified in the reviewed material."
  },
  "existing_repository": {
    "resources_audit": "tools/development/resources-audit.json",
    "catalogue": "tools/development/regional-materials.json",
    "map": "tools/development/map-data.json",
    "readme": "tools/development/README.md",
    "inventory": [
      {
        "id": "crude-oil-and-natural-gas",
        "topic": "Crude oil and natural gas",
        "scope": "Ondo",
        "status": "Operating sector; territorial allocation not established"
      },
      {
        "id": "bitumen",
        "topic": "Bitumen",
        "scope": "Ondo; wider Dahomey Basin",
        "status": "Mapped occurrence"
      },
      {
        "id": "limestone",
        "topic": "Limestone",
        "scope": "Ogun",
        "status": "Established industrial feedstock"
      },
      {
        "id": "granite",
        "topic": "Granite",
        "scope": "Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti; Kwara basement",
        "status": "Geological occurrence and quarrying sector"
      },
      {
        "id": "gold",
        "topic": "Gold",
        "scope": "Osun; local Igbomina claims separate",
        "status": "Operating project confirmed"
      },
      {
        "id": "marble",
        "topic": "Marble",
        "scope": "Oyo and Kwara",
        "status": "Mapped occurrence"
      },
      {
        "id": "tantalite",
        "topic": "Tantalite",
        "scope": "Ekiti; wider pegmatite belts",
        "status": "Documented occurrence"
      },
      {
        "id": "kaolin",
        "topic": "Kaolin",
        "scope": "Ogun; Kwara/Ekiti occurrences",
        "status": "Locality evidence and state occurrences"
      },
      {
        "id": "clay",
        "topic": "Clay",
        "scope": "Multiple localities across the region",
        "status": "Broad occurrence; locality evaluation required"
      },
      {
        "id": "silica-sand",
        "topic": "Silica sand",
        "scope": "Ogun and coastal sedimentary areas",
        "status": "Official occurrence listing"
      },
      {
        "id": "feldspar",
        "topic": "Feldspar",
        "scope": "Ogun, Oyo; Kwara/Ekiti occurrences",
        "status": "Documented occurrence"
      },
      {
        "id": "quartz",
        "topic": "Quartz",
        "scope": "Oyo and Ekiti; Omu-Aran geology",
        "status": "Geological occurrence"
      },
      {
        "id": "iron-ore",
        "topic": "Iron ore",
        "scope": "Oyo; Oro/Idofian claim unverified",
        "status": "Mapped Oyo occurrence; no local reserve valuation"
      },
      {
        "id": "tourmaline",
        "topic": "Tourmaline",
        "scope": "Oyo, Ogun; Kwara localities",
        "status": "Occurrence documented; supplied locality details need care"
      },
      {
        "id": "bauxite-bauxitic-clay",
        "topic": "Bauxite / bauxitic clay",
        "scope": "Ekiti; Oro/Idofian speculation",
        "status": "Corrected commodity claim"
      },
      {
        "id": "gypsum",
        "topic": "Gypsum",
        "scope": "Ogun claim; Omu-Aran claim separate",
        "status": "Mapped context; local scale unverified"
      },
      {
        "id": "zinc-and-lead",
        "topic": "Zinc and lead",
        "scope": "Oyo claimed",
        "status": "Unverified regional locality claim"
      },
      {
        "id": "gemstones",
        "topic": "Gemstones",
        "scope": "Osun, Oyo, Ekiti claimed; Kwara documented listings",
        "status": "Mixed evidence; avoid blanket species claims"
      },
      {
        "id": "phosphate",
        "topic": "Phosphate",
        "scope": "Ogun and Oyo claimed; Oba-Isin unverified",
        "status": "Ogun listing; other supplied localities unverified"
      },
      {
        "id": "mica",
        "topic": "Mica",
        "scope": "Ekiti; Esie claim separate",
        "status": "Regional occurrence; town-specific quantity unverified"
      },
      {
        "id": "talc",
        "topic": "Talc",
        "scope": "Osun claimed; Esie/Kwara evidence",
        "status": "Esie geological evidence; commercial scale unverified"
      }
    ],
    "limits": "The source catalogue mainly establishes occurrences or operating sectors, not measured annual quantities. Town selection does not inherit state-level deposits. Unverified local claims remain unverified.",
    "not_model_baselines": [
      "Mapped bitumen belt is not production or recoverable reserve.",
      "Ogun limestone and cement capacity are not actual plant output.",
      "Ondo petroleum context lacks asset-level territorial production allocation.",
      "USGS Nigeria aggregates are not regional totals; the cited gold row represents reported exports.",
      "Oró/Ìdòfìàn iron/limestone claims and Esie/Omu-Aran gold quantities remain unverified."
    ]
  }
}